James Thomas Rook Jr.

Something like that happens with just about everything that comes out of China. Of course, it was odd that it was so closely timed to Chinese New Year. As it is, it will easily slow down China's economy by 1 or 2 percent. If it had gone just another week or so without being caught, and the New Year's travel had begun, it would have accomplished exactly what Trump would have wished the tariffs could accomplish.

Solved. But John Butler, . . . oh well.

I have heard it is supposed to take over a year to develop a vaccine. If that's the case then Armageddon might have to come earlier!

Too early to tell, of course. Seems, the effects are somewhere between a flu and a pneumonia. But the percentage of those who are infected to those who die (so far) is something like 2 percent, where not all early cases resulted in timely hospitalization. (Mostly because of how it effects the elderly.) Now that nearly all cases result in hospitalization, that percentage is slightly dropping (so far). The problem will show up again when it presents in even more remote, poor areas with very few hospitals and facilities. China is still a poor country, but can manage its resources well to react to such a problem. 
The effects of the flu in America kill about 6 percent of those hospitalized. 8k/140k. The United States has remote, poor areas too, but this country is also able to manage resources to react, although probably not as well as China. (But of all those infected with the flu in the United States the death rate is hardly even a tenth of one percent, because for most persons the flu isn't potent enough to require hospitalization.)
So it's a much more serious virus, and had it started in rural, southern America it would likely have spread much more rapidly. If it had been discovered only a few weeks later in China, it would have spread much more rapidly too. By far, the world's greatest "migrations" happen during holiday seasons in China, where a very high percentage of Chinese take to their high-speed trains and criss-cross China to visit family and friends in other provinces.
It acts like a very contagious flu, and could easily break into countries where the 2 percent death rate is expected. If it takes 3 months to create a vaccine or a survival treatment, this means that in three months with a nearly "linear" rate of increase (3k more each day) there would be on the order of 100,000 in three months, where 2 percent is 2,000 deaths. If exponential, deriving from current rates, then a million people could have it in 3 months where 2 percent is 20,000 deaths.
But China shared the full genetic sequence of the virus back on January 10, so if everyone rushes this would typically mean that vaccines would be developed in a matter of 1 to 2 months.
And as you say, then the big thing is how to stay ahead of morphing (evolving) versions.

I don't know about you .... but when in a fight, I try not to lean INTO a punch.
The best place to be when troops fix bayonets ... is somewhere else.

Here I am, 1:30 in the morning, waiting for a long distance phone call from the planet Remulac on the "Big Phone", eating raw eggs and drinking six paxks of beer .. and  I had the strangest recollection.....
Jesus, Mary and his Stepdad Joseph ran off to Egypt to hide for a couple of years, while Roman bad guys were killing babies in Israel.
Remember the convention theme "Follow Jesus"?
.... exit ... stage left!
Don't let the camel bite ya in the butt!
Denile is not just a river in Egypt!

Here I am, 1:30 in the morning, waiting for a long distance phone call from the planet Remulac on the "Big Phone", eating raw eggs and drinking six paxks of beer .. and  I had the strangest recollection.....
Jesus, Mary and his Stepdad Joseph ran off to Egypt to hide for a couple of years, while Roman bad guys were killing babies in Israel.
Remember the convention theme "Follow Jesus"?
.... exit ... stage left!
Don't let the camel bite ya in the butt!
Denile is not just a river in Egypt!

If I had two heads .... would I be wearing THIS one?

Without further independent check-able proof, I do not believe ANY of this.
Nothing, whatsoever.
Any way to independently check this?
The burden of proof lies with those making the assertions.

The Jews, Jehovah's Witnesses, and many others  during World War II prayed to God for salvation, not understanding that FREEDOM means many hardships, and death as the price that often or always must be paid .... and there are no exceptions .... EVER.
The last time Jehovah God tweaked the global experiment that is the human race was about 2,000 years ago.
Similarly, when we are being chastised into prison, and later into death, we have two choices:
1.) Rely on the prayers of eight million and more Brothers and Sisters for your salvation, to Jehovah God who according to all non-fantasy hard data has not interfered with ANY person, nation or organization in any way whatsoever, in modern times, or
2.) Sell everything you own at ten kopeks on the ruble (ten cents on the dollar), and get out of town, fast.
Otherwise ... FREEDOM is just a null-word, with no meaning.
......... that is how the Universe REALLY works.
The Jews tried to hold onto their property, and real estate, but "left town fast" ....  up the chimney of a crematorium.
That is the preamble of what is going on in the Russian Federation, now !
 

I have a reputation for diplomatic subtlety ....

I have a reputation for diplomatic subtlety ....

Meanwhile, 1.2 million people a year are being killed by mosquitoes, and a hundred million infected with various levels of disease, many permanently crippled .... and there is no panic anywhere!
gimmee a break!

Do not think it is this

 

quote: The take-home message? Don't make far-reaching claims about what principle can or cannot explain a phenomenon until you have considered all theoretical formulations of the principle. - https://www.sciencealert.com/new-research-says-the-uncertainty-principle-might-be-slightly-more-certain

In replying to Srecko Sostar's and Anna's observations I would like to add my own direct observations, using everything I know from the modern history I have studied, and things I have carefully watched over my 73 years of travel around the Sun.
I could give hundreds of examples from REAL history and REAL life experiences, but I have done that over a period of time, and have never changed anyone's mind by hard verifiable facts, so I will call upon you to think deeply about your real life knowledge, and real life experiences, and see if you can come up with a different conclusion than the one I have.
1) Jehovah does not interfere in the affairs of mankind in any ways whatsoever, in modern times.  The whole point of our existence is to be an experiment for the entertainment of Jehovah God .... and if you interfere with an experiment ... the results are skewed.
Think of it as the theocratic equivalent of the Heisenberg Principle, that governs quantum mechanics.  As counter-intuitive as it sounds, in the quantum world, if you watch an experiment ... it changes the results.
Same thing.
I have seen Brothers, much better men than I in every way, killed, yet somehow I survive. I have seen 8 million and more Brothers and Sisters pray for the Russian Federation to release our Brothers and return our property in Russia, with ZERO results.
I have seen four Sisters in one car, out in Field Service killed , being t-boned in an intersection.
I thank Jehovah several times a day for my, and my wife's lives, and the circumstances, times, and place that I live.
But without excellent doctors, money, insurance, and a dozen other things, I would have died many years ago.  I see 20/20 now, but I have been blind, twice, and it is ONLY because of money and circumstances, and reasonably competent doctors that I can see.
The list of things I am thankful for is quite large, and I thank Jehovah God for my life, and the opportunity to know how to live a good and wholesome life, with my wife and dogs, and chickens, and an internet connection that I can sit in my computer room, and explore the Universe in detail.
Whether or not I can afford to get my roof fixed ....is entirely up to me.
The fact of the matter is that Jehovah does NOT interfere with the experiment, today.
Not in big things ... not in small things.
There is the old parable of the country Church, where the congregation prayed earnestly and long for God to heal little Johnny's crippled legs ... and God answered those prayers.
NO.
The last time he tweaked the Petri Dish was about 2,000 years ago.
Since the chances of winning the Lottery are about one in 295 million, should I win, I may change my opinions slightly .... but it is still my responsibility to buy a ticket.
 
 

Quote @Anna " If a tornado came tomorrow, and destroyed the new HQ in Warwick, what do you think most JWs would be saying? "
I'd be more interested in what Ex JWs would be saying . But John Butler got D/fed from here for writing his thoughts. 

Quote @Anna " If a tornado came tomorrow, and destroyed the new HQ in Warwick, what do you think most JWs would be saying? "
I'd be more interested in what Ex JWs would be saying . But John Butler got D/fed from here for writing his thoughts. 

In replying to Srecko Sostar's and Anna's observations I would like to add my own direct observations, using everything I know from the modern history I have studied, and things I have carefully watched over my 73 years of travel around the Sun.
I could give hundreds of examples from REAL history and REAL life experiences, but I have done that over a period of time, and have never changed anyone's mind by hard verifiable facts, so I will call upon you to think deeply about your real life knowledge, and real life experiences, and see if you can come up with a different conclusion than the one I have.
1) Jehovah does not interfere in the affairs of mankind in any ways whatsoever, in modern times.  The whole point of our existence is to be an experiment for the entertainment of Jehovah God .... and if you interfere with an experiment ... the results are skewed.
Think of it as the theocratic equivalent of the Heisenberg Principle, that governs quantum mechanics.  As counter-intuitive as it sounds, in the quantum world, if you watch an experiment ... it changes the results.
Same thing.
I have seen Brothers, much better men than I in every way, killed, yet somehow I survive. I have seen 8 million and more Brothers and Sisters pray for the Russian Federation to release our Brothers and return our property in Russia, with ZERO results.
I have seen four Sisters in one car, out in Field Service killed , being t-boned in an intersection.
I thank Jehovah several times a day for my, and my wife's lives, and the circumstances, times, and place that I live.
But without excellent doctors, money, insurance, and a dozen other things, I would have died many years ago.  I see 20/20 now, but I have been blind, twice, and it is ONLY because of money and circumstances, and reasonably competent doctors that I can see.
The list of things I am thankful for is quite large, and I thank Jehovah God for my life, and the opportunity to know how to live a good and wholesome life, with my wife and dogs, and chickens, and an internet connection that I can sit in my computer room, and explore the Universe in detail.
Whether or not I can afford to get my roof fixed ....is entirely up to me.
The fact of the matter is that Jehovah does NOT interfere with the experiment, today.
Not in big things ... not in small things.
There is the old parable of the country Church, where the congregation prayed earnestly and long for God to heal little Johnny's crippled legs ... and God answered those prayers.
NO.
The last time he tweaked the Petri Dish was about 2,000 years ago.
Since the chances of winning the Lottery are about one in 295 million, should I win, I may change my opinions slightly .... but it is still my responsibility to buy a ticket.
 
 

That's what my dog gets when I give him some of my chili..
 
Really the question should be why does Jehovah allow a Kingdom hall in the Philippines to be destroyed including several brothers and sisters with it, and then why does he seemingly provide sand for another kingdom hall to be built?

Most witnesses will tell you that they do not expect divine protection at this time. But when they do experience a life saving situation, they thank Jehovah for it. They will also tell you that they can see Jehovah's blessing in their life and in the life of the organization as a whole, regardless of negative events that are beyond their control. If a tornado came tomorrow, and destroyed the new HQ in Warwick, what do you think most JWs would be saying?

That will give you your answer.

 

Let's put this in the proper perspective, shall we?
No, actually ... the "Pale Horse" is just contemplating its navel, and laughing at our panicking over the Coronavirus.
From the World Health Organization:
" Of all disease-transmitting insects, the mosquito is the greatest menace, spreading malaria, dengue and yellow fever, which together are responsible for several million deaths and hundreds of millions of cases every year. Mosquitos also transmit lymphatic filariasis and Japanese encephalitis. Other insect species carry a variety of diseases. Sleeping sickness is spread by the tsetse fly, with 55 million people at risk. The leishmaniasis group of diseases is spread by sandflies, with 350 million people at risk. Another 100 million in Latin America are at risk of Chagas disease, spread by household bugs. Onchocerciasis, or river blindness, is carried by blackflies, and plague by fleas.
Malaria is endemic in 91 countries, with about 40% of the world's population at risk. By undermining the health and working capacity of hundreds of millions, it is closely linked to poverty and stunts social and economic development. Up to 500 million cases occur every year, 90% of them in Africa, and there are up to 2.7 million deaths annually.
Dengue is the world's most important mosquito-borne virus disease, with 2500 million people worldwide at risk of infection and 20 million cases a year in more than 100 countries. In 1995, the worst dengue epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean for 15 years struck at least 14 countries, causing more than 200 000 cases of dengue fever and almost 6000 cases of the more serious dengue haemorrhagic fever.
Many major cities of the world, especially in the Americas, are at risk of potentially devastating epidemics of yellow fever because they are infested with Aedes aegypti mosquitos which can transmit the disease. Lymphatic filariasis (elephantiasis) infects about 120 million people in tropical areas of Africa, India, South-East Asia, the Pacific Islands and South and Central America.
Among diseases spread by other insects, leishmaniasis occurs in 88 countries, and its spread is accelerated by road building, dam construction, mining and other development programmes that bring more people into contact with the sandflies that transmit the causative parasite. Sleeping sickness affects 36 countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Onchocerciasis affects some 17.6 million people in Africa, and a smaller number in Central and South America. At least 16 million people in Latin America are infected with Chagas disease. Plague continues to strike relatively small numbers of people in Africa, the Americas and Asia."
The "Pale Horse" trots at a pretty devastating steady pace already, hardly breaking a sweat.
...this MAY change dramatically .... or not.
 

One day while out in Field Service with the smartest brother at our Kingdom Hall, a long time Elder and an extremely dedicated man, I asked him if he understood the overlapping generation dogma, and could explain it to me.  (He was driving, I was riding "shotgun", and there were two Sisters in the back seat).
He was very thoughtful, for a few moments, and replied "I think they are trying to do the best they can ...."
He could not explain it to me.
Perhaps he needed to see this video!
It's so CLEAR to me now!

Yesterday I got a text message from my bank that my recent check to the Kingdom Hall had been posted to my account.
I had marked on the check, in the memo section "FOR LOCAL NEEDS".
I hope that this is not converted to help pay for the Societies Lawyers to go to court to try and stop publications of documents such as these mentioned here, but I have my doubts.
Perhaps things such as this is why the name of the magazine "Consolation", was changed to "Awake! ".

Yesterday I got a text message from my bank that my recent check to the Kingdom Hall had been posted to my account.
I had marked on the check, in the memo section "FOR LOCAL NEEDS".
I hope that this is not converted to help pay for the Societies Lawyers to go to court to try and stop publications of documents such as these mentioned here, but I have my doubts.
Perhaps things such as this is why the name of the magazine "Consolation", was changed to "Awake! ".

Article from 1/24/2020: Jehovah’s Witness abuse victims unhappy at lack of care, report shows
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/01/jehovahs-witness-abuse-victims-unhappy-at-lack-of-care-report-shows/
.....The Dutch branch went to court to try to stop the publication of the report but judges on Thursday ruled that it could be published in the public interest.....
Below is final part of that report. 
SUMMARY
Results in context
International studies conducted in Australia, Belgium and the United Kingdom show that the issue of sexual abuse in the Jehovah's Witness community is not restricted to the Netherlands. Furthermore, studies conducted within the Dutch Roman Catholic Church and the youth care sector in the Netherlands show that the issue of sexual abuse is not exclusive to the Jehovah's Witness community.
Our study and the international studies show that the Jehovah's Witness community can be characterized as a closed community. Each of these studies shows that fixed structures and protocols have been established based on the Bible.
Furthermore, all of the international studies showed that the Jehovah's Witness community does not adequately handle reports and complaints of sexual abuse against minors and that victims find themselves in a vulnerable position.
Our study and the studies conducted in Australia, Belgium and the United Kingdom also suggested that the closed nature of the community hinders transparent handling of reports of sexual abuse. At first glance, this closed nature also seems to have a negative influence on the willingness to file a police report. International studies into the Jehovah's Witness community have found that there are very few opportunities to make such complaints outside the community and that doing so involves a very high risk of shunning and exclusion. The victim-support mechanisms within the community appear to be insufficient, no support is provided to enable external reporting of sexual abuse and according to many respondents, external reports are discouraged.
The obligation to notify the authorities of suspected or actual sexual abuse is a vital measure that has been taken by or recommended to the Jehovah's Witness community in Australia and Belgium. The Roman Catholic Church in the Netherlands has also been advised to introduce a notification obligation. Since the studies in Australia and the United Kingdom were conducted, the Jehovah's Witnesses have set up a protocol to determine how elders must handle allegations of child abuse. The effects of the measures taken by the Jehovah's Witness community in Australia, the United Kingdom and Belgium in order to improve child safety are not yet known.
When we look at the three Dutch studies examining communities (closed or otherwise) that were examined during this study (the Roman Catholic Church, the youth care sector and the Netherlands Ministry of Defense), we note that being in a closed community hinders people from reporting a variety of offences. At the time, the minors who reported sexual abuse within the Roman Catholic Church community seemed to be in an extremely vulnerable position (due in part to the lack of personal counselling), which - among other factors - discouraged them from notifying external parties. Studies within the youth care sector and the Netherlands Ministry of Defense indicate that non-religious organisations also have structural inadequacies concerning the protection of members against undesired conduct and external reporting of such conduct. Furthermore, it can be carefully concluded from the studies within the Roman Catholic Church and youth care sector that the weak levels of procedural transparency concerning issues, such as to whom the incidents should be reported and how the reporting process is conducted, appear to have negatively impacted the willingness to report offences.
Utrecht University Conclusions
▪ A total of 751 participants shared their experiences of sexual abuse within the Jehovah's Witness community via our contact point. These experiences included 292 accounts from people with personal experience of abuse and 459 accounts from people who know somebody who suffered abuse.
▪ 80% of the participants in the study reported their experiences of sexual abuse within the Jehovah's Witness community. ▪ 30% of the respondents notified the police and 27% of the respondents filed a police report.
▪ Three-quarters of the victims awarded a score of 5 or less for the handling of their report by the Jehovah's Witness community (average score: 3.3). ▪ 63% of the victims awarded a score of 6 or more for the handling of their report by the police (average score: 6.4).
▪ Compared to internal channels (80% report the offence within the community), a relatively small proportion of the participants in the study engage external channels (30% notify the police and 27% file an official police report). There are reasons to assume that the filing of a police report is hindered by the closed nature of the community and the risks involved in informing external parties. However, our study does not provide causal evidence for this factor and follow-up studies would be required for such evidence.
▪ According to our respondents, the closed culture within the Jehovah's Witness community can also be linked to the problems concerning the handling of reports of sexual abuse. The board has now put protocols and instructions in place to establish procedures for responding to reports of sexual abuse, although these mainly seem to focus on protecting the community - and, by extension, the culprit - rather than the victim. As a result, victims receive limited support and insufficient recognition, which can result in secondary victimization.
▪ While the community has taken steps over the past 10 years to improve how reports of sexual abuse are handled, the Jehovah's Witnesses' formalistic system still provides no guarantee of an adequate response to sexual abuse.
Recommendations
Based on the findings and conclusions in the study, we have formulated recommendations for the Jehovah's Witness community and for the Dutch government.
▪ We appeal to the community of Jehovah's Witnesses to ensure better support for and recognition of victims and alleged victims via measures such as the following:
o Providing more explicit information regarding the options for reporting the abuse externally or filing a police report and/or seeking external help as well as providing clear assistance with these external channels.
o Setting up an internal reporting centre for victims of sexual abuse, with adequate knowledge of the subject and of the internal and external options for victims. Clear agreements must be established within this reporting centre concerning timely engagement of external parties for the purposes of reporting the offence and/or supporting the victim.
o Compiling annual reports regarding the activities of the internal reporting centre in relation to its own website, fellow believers and the public.
o Training and educating elders in how to handle in cases of sexual abuse, in order to better equip them to provide support to victims.
o Investing in openness and transparency in relation to sexual abuse and how it is handled.
o Initiating cultural change that establishes a clearer position for women.
o Engaging in discussions within the community and with other parties - such as politicians, the police, the authorities and the Reclaimed Voices foundation - concerning how to prevent and handle sexual abuse.
▪ Furthermore, the results of this study could help to ensure relevant parties - such as the municipal health services and the police - are better informed of the influence of closed communities on victims of abuse.
▪ The Netherlands board of Jehovah's Witnesses actively cooperated with our study. The board also stated that it complies with the law of the land and the Reclaimed Voices foundation confirmed this policy principle. This situation provides the Dutch political system with the opportunity to take action and enter into talks with the community about patterns, church rules, other rules, customs, structures and their consequences for the willingness to report sexual abuse within the community of Jehovah's Witnesses. Within this context, a law is being considered that would make it mandatory for the Jehovah's Witnesses and other organisations to report instances or suspicions of sexual abuse to the police. Other countries have already introduced this type of law. Assessment of the usefulness and desirability of this instrument for the Jehovah's Witness community in the Netherlands will require further research.
▪ Finally, we recommend supplementing the independent scientific research presented during this report with additional future research. After all, the number of missing values/responses for a number of variables and the self-reports presented here imply that establishing truth is not the purpose of this report. Furthermore, no solid causal links concerning willingness to report sexual abuse can be derived from this report. Further research would be necessary to determine how applicable the findings concerning sexual abuse are to the Jehovah's Witness community in the Netherlands and in other countries, as well as within other organisations. However, the research presented in this study into sexual abuse within the Jehovah's Witness community in the Netherlands provides ample grounds for future research to establish a more comprehensive picture of the people reporting sexual abuse, the people not reporting sexual abuse, and the perpetrators of sexual abuse among Jehovah's Witnesses in the Netherlands and in other countries.
https://www.wodc.nl/binaries/3010_summary_tcm28-427065.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0WA8hhpBT-_2CXiIduYX4vySLdU3dAFDUlAaw0Aowf4f0fZji4J12HECo