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You know that classic scenario: you’re out with friends and you can’t settle on how you should split the bill because Heather didn’t have any of the appetizer, but Kevin ordered two extra rounds of drinks. And instead of coming to the literal table for a compromise, you just...leave?

Well, as of 12:01 am on Saturday, the U.S. government—unable to come to a bipartisan agreement on the 12 appropriations bills for annual spending—has shut down.

And how did we get here?

Imagine Heather and Kevin (from our very realistic scenario up top) were trying to compromise on their food and drink tab, but were also using this as an excuse to negotiate other things like raising budget caps for defense and domestic spending or funding the Mexico border wall or extending the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA).

DACA specifically has drawn the bulk of negotiating heat, despite both sides claiming to support it. Plus, more than 100 CEOs—including Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook), Tim Cook (Apple), Jeff Bezos (Amazon), and Mary Barra (GM)—have called on Congress to provide immediate legal relief for the more than 800,000 young immigrants brought to the U.S. illegally as children.

So, the big question: what does this mean?

Effective immediately, any non-essential federal employees are furloughed (given a temporary leave of absence), many (but not all) government functions are frozen, and all Smithsonian museums are closed. Those agencies with funding outside the annual appropriations process are being asked by the Trump administration to remain open, including the Energy Department and national parks (unlike the 2013 shutdown).

If the shutdown—currently in Day 3—continues for much longer, other agencies and processes will feel the effects. That could mean delays in the processing of passport and visa applications and mortgage approvals (because of IRS furloughs), and no maintenance of .gov websites.

But the bigger question: what does this mean for business as usual?

For the first few days, the answer is “nothing really.” But we’re fast-approaching the "something really" stage. Here’s what can and/or will happen:

  • The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Future Trading Commission will be furloughing staff. So, while corporations can still file documents, no one will be reviewing them. And the suspension of SEC services may disrupt financial markets. 
  • For the economy at large, the halt can stall the U.S.’ recent growth since it costs productive work time and government revenue (think museum fees).
    Companies in the private sector are disrupted if they have any government contracts.
  • A general diminishment in consumer confidence and economic outlook.
    According to Standard & Poor’s, all told, a shutdown could cost the economy $6.5 billion a week.

Next time, we’re picking the restaurant.

http://morningbrew.cmail20.com/t/j-l-oudkiyd-yhyuhjkhdk-x/

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      Bonjour mon frère 
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