'Pandemic' Unemployment Rates

[admin]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-climb-38-million-in-late-april-to-push-coronavirus-total-to-30-million-2020-04-30?mod=article_inline

It seems as if everyone believes that all these jobs are still there waiting for everyone to return.

The big question is what % of these jobs have vanished forever or been replaced by efficiencies or permanent changes in behavior?

 

Another point is that these numbers do not represent ALL of the unemployed. Evidently many cannot get in to actually apply or even worse are not eligible for some technicality.

[admin]

"Just want to point out, our population has doubled since the great depression."

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Yes, exactly. Our population has doubled, yet the lowest weekly unemployment claims in the past 6 weeks was 5x the previous weekly record.

This is blowing the great depression numbers away regardless of population. The highest unemployment rate in US history was 24.1% during the great depression.

The Fed is projecting 32.1% unemployment rate this quarter.

[admin]

Moreover, one can argue that the expected duration of unemployment matters more than the unemployment rate itself, especially if the recovery is quick (and so duration is short). These are very large numbers by historical standards, but this is a rather unique shock that is unlike any other experienced by the U.S. economy in the last 100 years.

[admin]

30 million people have filed for unemployment in the last 6 weeks, equal to *every single worker* losing their job in these 27 states 

 

[TheWorldNewsOrg]

So far 30mln initial unemployment claims out of a workforce of ~165mln = 18% or ~1/5 people in the workforce.
And that number will get worse over the coming weeks/months. Things are looking very bleak...

As we “reopen” in phases and attempt to resume “normal” activities, we are going to see a lot of businesses, particularly restaurants, retail and manufacturing which account for a large portion of the workforce, face the reality that the already over-leveraged and paycheck-to-paycheck consumer is nowhere to be found globally... I.e. diminished demand and spending.

At that point the average consumer has missed a few rent and/or mortgage payments, is loaded up with debt on credit cards, has car loans, has student loans, has HELOC, has healthcare debt, etc. and is either unemployed already or is facing the threat of unemployment and reduced wages. They will have little to no reserves. Their main focus is to stay afloat and not discretionary spending.

Consumer spending accounts for 60-70% of US GDP. Debt to GDP was already at nosebleed levels but will keep seeing new record highs. There will be a tsunami of both consumer and corporate defaults (banks have already warned about this in 1Q earnings and are exponentially increasing reserves to deal with the upcoming defaults)... it will be a vicious cycle of unemployment and plummeting consumer confidence leading to diminished spending leading to further unemployment and negative sentiment and so on and so forth... contagion and domino affects are real. This will impact every part of the economy and every corner of the world.

We are not even considering a potential second or third wave of Covid. Again, we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg at the moment. We are in for a long and hard journey.

Analysts predict some 50% of restaurants will never open their doors again. Many are not coming back.